How Futures Thinking Is Changing Your Today
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Futures Thinking – Next-Level Futures Studies: Shaping the Present from the Future
Do you still remember our journey into the world of“Bruddle(H)Rs”? We realized how easily we get caught up in complaining and how hard it can sometimes be for us to see the positive in the here and now.
But what happens when we apply this perspective not only to the present, but also to what lies ahead? This often gives rise to a vague feeling of uncertainty or even fear. But here’s a simple rule of thumb: If the future scares you, then it’s not your future.
It’s simply a scenario that’s being imposed on you from the outside. The good news? You can shape your own future. That’s exactly where Futures Thinking comes in.
The Principle: Shaping the Present from the Future
Traditional strategic thinking is usually linear: We stand in the present, look at past data, and try to take a step forward. The result? Most of the time, just “more of the same” with minor adjustments.
Futures Thinking turns the tables completely.
Instead of planning from today to tomorrow, we mentally travel to a point in the future—say, 5, 10, or 20 years ahead. We create a desirable, concrete vision (a Preferred Future). And only from that point do we look back at the present:
Backcasting instead of forecasting: Looking back from today, what steps would we have had to take to arrive exactly there?
By choosing the future as your starting point, you free yourself from the constraints and roadblocks of everyday life today. You don’t wait to see what happens; instead, you shift from reacting to shaping the future.
The Rules of the Game: Jim Dator’s 3 “Future Laws”
To make this leap in thinking successful, it helps to look to one of the pioneers of futures studies: Jim Dator. His three fundamental laws of futures studies are the perfect compass for expanding the boundaries of your own thinking:
- The future cannot be predicted—because it does not yet exist. The future is not a fixed destination we will eventually reach. It is open-ended, subject to change, and is shaped only by the decisions we make in the here and now.
- Any useful idea about the future must seem ridiculous at first. If an idea for the future sounds completely logical and feasible to everyone today, it probably just describes an extension of the present. True change almost always seems bizarre, unrealistic, or uncomfortable at first.
- We shape our tools—and then our tools shape us. Whether it’s letterpress printing, smartphones, or new ways of thinking: the tools we create fundamentally change how we think, act, and perceive the future itself.
Probability vs. Possibility: Why AI Doesn’t Know the Future
It is precisely with Dator’s third law—that of tools—that we find ourselves at an exciting turning point today. Every day, we use tools such as artificial intelligence to find answers to our questions. But can AI tell us what the future holds?
Let’s try a little thought experiment. If you ask an AI the question:
“Tell me any number between 0 and 10.”
What happens? In the vast majority of cases, it first answers with 7 —and on the next try, probably with 3.
Why? Because AI is based on probabilities. It analyzes huge amounts of historical data and calculates which answer is statistically the most frequently chosen or the best fit. It’s fixated on the past.
- AI relies on probabilities: what seems most plausible based on past data.
- Futurology focuses on possibilities: what is conceivable, malleable, and new.
So if we leave the future entirely up to our algorithms and probabilities, we’re simply repeating the patterns of the past. We remain stuck in an endless loop of the familiar.
From Statistics to Direction: Or How We Open Up the Space of Possibilities
To break free from this statistical trap, we must learn to think in terms of possibilities. In futures studies, we often refer to the so-called “Futures Cone.” It distinguishes between different types of futures:
- The likely future: What will happen if we simply continue as we have been (the AI path).
- The plausible future: What would be technically and socially conceivable based on current trends.
- The desirable future: The scenario we truly want—even if it still seems crazy or unattainable today.
Artificial intelligence can be an excellent tool for analyzing the likely future. But what about defining the desirable future? That requires empathy, values, attitude, and imagination—typically human superpowers.
4 Steps to Becoming a Futures Thinker
So how exactly can you incorporate this method into your daily life or your business?
- Scanning for weak signals: Don’t just focus on the big trends everyone is talking about. Look for small, unusual changes on the fringes of society or technology. What still seems bizarre today? (Remember Dator’s Second Law!)
- Articulate your most radical, desirable goal: Set aside all budgets, obstacles, and concerns for a moment. What does your best-case scenario look like in 10 years? Describe it as specifically as possible.
- Play the movie in reverse: Imagine that you’ve already achieved your goal. Look back (backcasting): What was needed 3 years ago? What about 1 year ago? And what do you need to do today to get the ball rolling?
- Prototyping in the Here and Now: Make the future tangible. Don’t wait for the finished large-scale project—test small hypotheses right away.
Use AI as a tool—not as a navigation system
Does that mean we should ban AI from the process? Not at all. Remember Dator’s Third Law: Tools shape us.
The trick is to use AI correctly. Use algorithms as sparring partners to quickly identify patterns from the past or run through different scenarios. But never let AI call the shots. It gives you the statistical “7”; you consciously choose the unconventional “8” or break the mold and go for the “11.”
Conclusion: Moving Away from Complaining and Toward Shaping the Future
In the end, we’ve come full circle back to our “Bruddle(H)R”: Complaining and fear of the future are two sides of the same coin. Both arise when we see ourselves as passive victims of circumstance.
The future is not a fate that descends upon us like a storm. It is a blank sheet of paper.
If the scenarios that haunt the news or your feeds every day frighten you, let them sink in, but take a close look at what, if anything, you can influence. Take the liberty to envision your own version of the future and start building it today. That way, Margaret Lee Umbeck’s (1905–1956) mantra will, at best, become an integral part of your journey.
future Margaret Lee Umbeck
